Data & sources
Every number in the product traces to a registered dataset with a source, a date, a version and a confidence class. Swapping a demo dataset for a live extract is an implementation of the DataProvider interface — the engine does not change.
Demo simulation — not an official forecast. The baseline economy is dimensionally correct and in the right neighbourhood of published Australian aggregates, but it is not an official extract. Every relationship is calibrated rather than estimated by this project. Results are scenario estimates, not predictions.
Datasets
Baseline as of 2026-07-01.
| Dataset | Publisher | As of | Frequency | Geography | Confidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian National Accounts (5206.0)GDP, household consumption, business investment, exports and imports, in current and chain volume terms. | ABS | 2026-03-31 | quarterly | national | High | Demo |
| Consumer Price Index (6401.0)Headline and trimmed-mean inflation, and the housing, energy and food groups. | ABS | 2026-03-31 | quarterly | national | High | Demo |
| Labour Force (6202.0)Unemployment, underemployment, participation, hours worked, employment by industry. | ABS | 2026-06-30 | monthly | state | High | Demo |
| Wage Price Index (6345.0)Wage growth, total hourly rates of pay excluding bonuses. | ABS | 2026-03-31 | quarterly | national | High | Demo |
| National, state and territory population (3101.0)Population, natural increase, net overseas migration, age structure. | ABS | 2026-03-31 | quarterly | state | High | Demo |
| Building Approvals (8731.0)Dwelling units approved, houses and other residential, by state. | ABS | 2026-06-30 | monthly | state | High | Demo |
| Household Income and Wealth (6523.0) & Household Expenditure SurveyIncome distribution by decile, tenure, household composition, net worth and expenditure shares. | ABS | 2025-06-30 | irregular | national | Medium | Demo |
| Interest Rates and Yields (F1, F5, F6)Cash rate target, lending rates to households and business, deposit rates. | RBA | 2026-07-31 | monthly | national | High | Demo |
| Household Finances — Selected Ratios (E2)Household debt to income, interest payments to income, housing assets to income. | RBA | 2026-03-31 | quarterly | national | High | Demo |
| Monetary policy transmission estimatesPass-through of the cash rate to lending rates, and the response of activity, employment and inflation, from RBA research discussion papers and MARTIN model documentation. | Academic & institutional research | 2024-12-31 | irregular | national | Medium | Demo |
| Dwelling values and rentsMedian dwelling values, advertised rents, rental vacancy rates, by capital city and region. | Housing Australia | 2026-06-30 | monthly | capitalCity | Medium | Demo |
| Quarterly ADI Property ExposuresHousing loan book composition, variable vs fixed share, loan-to-value distribution, arrears. | APRA | 2026-03-31 | quarterly | national | High | Demo |
| Budget aggregates and forward estimatesReceipts, payments, underlying cash balance, net debt, and major programme lines. | Treasury | 2026-05-31 | annual | national | High | Demo |
| Taxation StatisticsIndividual income tax by bracket, rental deductions, capital gains, company tax. | ATO | 2025-06-30 | annual | national | Medium | Demo |
| Migration Programme planning levelsPermanent programme by stream, temporary visa holders, student and skilled grants. | Home Affairs | 2026-06-30 | annual | national | High | Demo |
| Health expenditure and accessGovernment health expenditure, bulk-billing rates, elective surgery waiting times, out-of-pocket costs. | AIHW | 2025-06-30 | annual | state | Medium | Demo |
| Retail electricity prices and Default Market OfferRepresentative residential and small-business electricity bills, wholesale prices. | AER / AEMO | 2026-07-01 | annual | state | Medium | Demo |
| Wellbeing and social outcome indicatorsFinancial stress incidence, housing affordability, poverty and inequality measures used to anchor the modelled wellbeing proxies. | PC | 2025-12-31 | irregular | national | Low | Demo |
Publishers
The statistical agencies this product traces its numbers to.
Australian Bureau of Statistics
ABS
National accounts, labour force, CPI, wage price index, population, household income and wealth, building approvals.
https://www.abs.gov.au · CC BY 4.0
Reserve Bank of Australia
RBA
Cash rate, lending rates, credit aggregates, household balance sheet ratios, Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts.
https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/ · CC BY 4.0
Australian Treasury
Treasury
Budget papers, Intergenerational Report, tax expenditure statements, fiscal aggregates and forward estimates.
https://treasury.gov.au · CC BY 3.0 AU
Australian Prudential Regulation Authority
APRA
Authorised deposit-taking institution property exposures, loan serviceability buffers, arrears and lending standards.
https://www.apra.gov.au/statistics · CC BY 3.0 AU
Australian Taxation Office
ATO
Taxation statistics: income distribution, rental property schedules, capital gains, superannuation.
https://www.ato.gov.au/about-ato/research-and-statistics · CC BY 3.0 AU
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
AIHW
Health expenditure, hospital activity and waiting times, housing assistance, welfare and social determinants of health.
https://www.aihw.gov.au · CC BY 4.0
Department of Home Affairs
Home Affairs
Migration programme planning levels, visa grants by stream, net overseas migration.
https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-statistics · CC BY 3.0 AU
Productivity Commission
PC
Productivity, housing supply and planning inquiries, Report on Government Services, childcare and aged care reviews.
https://www.pc.gov.au · CC BY 4.0
Department of Education / DEWR
Education & Employment
School and tertiary funding, international student enrolments, HELP loan parameters, employment services.
https://www.education.gov.au/about-us/resources · CC BY 4.0
Housing Australia (formerly NHFIC)
Housing Australia
State of the Housing System: dwelling supply and demand projections, affordability measures.
https://www.housingaustralia.gov.au/research · CC BY 4.0
Australian Energy Regulator / AEMO
AER / AEMO
Default market offer, electricity and gas prices, generation mix, Integrated System Plan.
https://www.aer.gov.au · CC BY 4.0
State and territory treasuries
State governments
Stamp duty and land tax settings, state budgets, public housing programmes, planning approval statistics.
Published economic literature
Academic & institutional research
Peer-reviewed and central-bank research papers used to calibrate elasticities and transmission lags where no official series exists.
PolicySandbox calibration
PolicySandbox.ai
Parameters chosen by PolicySandbox to reconcile the digital twin's accounting identities, or where no external estimate exists. Always carries an explicit assumption entry.
Baseline indicators
95 indicators make up the Australia digital twin's starting state.
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Trend / yr | Dataset | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | 2,880 | audBillions | +4.7 | abs.na | High |
| Real GDP (chain volume, annualised)Trend growth set to the long-run average of population growth plus productivity. | 2,560 | audBillions | +2 | abs.na | High |
| Real GDP growth | 2 | percent | — | abs.na | High |
| Real GDP per capita | 92,100 | aud | +0.7 | abs.na | High |
| Labour productivity growth | 0.9 | percent | — | abs.na | Medium |
| Output gapNot directly observable. Inferred, and used only as an intermediate in the labour and price blocks. | -0.2 | percent | — | rba.transmission | Low |
| Headline CPI inflationBaseline drifts gently toward the middle of the 2–3% target band. | 2.9 | percent | -0.1 | abs.cpi | High |
| Trimmed mean inflation | 2.8 | percent | -0.1 | abs.cpi | High |
| Retail energy price level | 100 | index | +3 | aer.energy | Medium |
| Average residential electricity bill | 1,920 | audPerYear | +3 | aer.energy | Medium |
| Retail petrol priceDollars per litre, national average. | 1.92 | aud | +2.5 | aer.energy | Medium |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2 | percent | — | abs.lfs | High |
| Underemployment rate | 6.2 | percent | — | abs.lfs | High |
| Labour force participation rateGentle downward drift from population ageing. | 66.9 | percent | -0.06 | abs.lfs | High |
| Employed personsMillions of persons. | 14.85 | people | +1.3 | abs.lfs | High |
| Average hours worked per employed person | 32.6 | count | — | abs.lfs | High |
| Wage Price Index growth | 3.4 | percent | -0.05 | abs.wpi | High |
| Real wage growth | 0.5 | percent | — | abs.wpi | High |
| National minimum wageDollars per hour. | 24.95 | aud | +3.5 | dese | High |
| Job vacancies | 330 | thousandPeople | 0 | abs.lfs | Medium |
| RBA cash rate target | 3.85 | percent | — | rba.rates | High |
| Average outstanding variable mortgage rate | 6.05 | percent | — | rba.rates | High |
| Average new owner-occupier lending rate | 6.15 | percent | — | rba.rates | High |
| Average business lending rate | 6.7 | percent | — | rba.rates | High |
| Average term deposit rate | 4.15 | percent | — | rba.rates | High |
| Housing credit outstanding | 2,350 | audBillions | +5 | rba.household | High |
| Median borrowing capacity, dual-income buyerAssumes a 3 percentage point serviceability buffer over the assessed rate. | 720,000 | aud | +3.4 | apra.property | Medium |
| Total credit growth | 5.4 | percent | — | rba.household | High |
| HouseholdsMillions of households. | 11.15 | households | +1.4 | abs.hes | High |
| Household gross disposable income | 1,545 | audBillions | +4.9 | abs.na | High |
| Household final consumption expenditure | 1,580 | audBillions | +4.6 | abs.na | High |
| Household saving ratio | 4.5 | percent | — | abs.na | High |
| Household debt to disposable income | 185 | percent | — | rba.household | High |
| Household interest payments to disposable income | 9.8 | percent | — | rba.household | High |
| Household net worth | 17,400 | audBillions | +5.2 | abs.hes | Medium |
| Consumer sentiment index100 = neutral. Values below 100 indicate pessimists outnumber optimists. | 92 | index | — | abs.hes | Medium |
| Employee household living cost index | 100 | index | +3.1 | abs.cpi | High |
| Median dwelling value, national | 852,000 | aud | +4 | corelogic.housing | Medium |
| Median advertised rent | 660 | audPerWeek | +4.2 | corelogic.housing | Medium |
| Rental vacancy rate | 1.6 | percent | +0.05 | corelogic.housing | Medium |
| Occupied dwelling stockMillions of dwellings. | 11.4 | dwellings | +1.5 | abs.pop | High |
| Cumulative dwelling shortfall vs underlying demandThousands of dwellings. Highly sensitive to the assumed household formation rate. | 175 | dwellings | +22 | nhfic | Low |
| Home ownership rate | 66 | percent | -0.2 | abs.hes | High |
| Dwelling price to household income ratio | 8.1 | ratio | — | nhfic | Medium |
| Investor share of new housing finance | 37 | percent | — | apra.property | High |
| Dwelling approvalsThousands of dwellings, annualised. | 178 | dwellings | +2 | abs.approvals | High |
| Dwelling completionsThousands of dwellings, annualised. | 168 | dwellings | +2 | abs.approvals | High |
| Residential construction cost index | 100 | index | +3.6 | abs.approvals | Medium |
| Construction employment | 1,290 | thousandPeople | +1.2 | abs.lfs | High |
| Median development approval timeDays. Varies enormously by jurisdiction; a national median is indicative only. | 128 | count | — | pc | Low |
| Private business investment | 372 | audBillions | +4 | abs.na | High |
| Business confidence indexNet balance. Zero is the long-run average. | 4 | index | — | abs.na | Low |
| Retail turnover | 435 | audBillions | +4.3 | abs.na | High |
| Business insolvenciesThousands per year. | 13.6 | count | 0 | abs.na | Medium |
| Commonwealth receipts | 738 | audBillions | +4.8 | treasury.budget | High |
| Commonwealth payments | 762 | audBillions | +4.9 | treasury.budget | High |
| Underlying cash balance | -24 | audBillions | -2 | treasury.budget | High |
| Commonwealth net debt | 566 | audBillions | +5.5 | treasury.budget | High |
| Individual income tax receipts | 335 | audBillions | +5.2 | ato.tax | High |
| Company tax receipts | 138 | audBillions | +3.4 | ato.tax | High |
| GST receipts | 96 | audBillions | +4.4 | ato.tax | High |
| Commonwealth health expenditure | 138 | audBillions | +5.6 | aihw.health | High |
| Commonwealth education expenditure | 62 | audBillions | +4.5 | dese | High |
| Social security and welfare expenditure | 285 | audBillions | +5.2 | treasury.budget | High |
| Public infrastructure investmentAll levels of government, engineering and building construction. | 118 | audBillions | +3.5 | treasury.budget | Medium |
| Defence expenditure | 58 | audBillions | +6 | treasury.budget | High |
| Exports of goods and services | 702 | audBillions | +3.2 | abs.na | High |
| Imports of goods and services | 684 | audBillions | +4 | abs.na | High |
| Current account balance | -18 | audBillions | — | abs.na | High |
| Trade-weighted exchange rate index | 61.5 | index | — | rba.rates | Medium |
| Domestic equity market indexRebased to 100 at the baseline date. Equity paths are the least reliable output in the model. | 100 | index | +5.5 | rba.rates | Low |
| 10-year Australian government bond yield | 4.25 | percent | — | rba.rates | High |
| Total superannuation assets | 4,450 | audBillions | +6.5 | ato.tax | High |
| Resident populationMillions of persons. | 27.85 | people | +1.25 | abs.pop | High |
| Net overseas migrationThousands of persons per year. | 260 | thousandPeople | — | homeaffairs.migration | High |
| Permanent migration programme | 185 | thousandPeople | — | homeaffairs.migration | High |
| International student visa holders | 650 | thousandPeople | — | homeaffairs.migration | High |
| Natural population increase | 105 | thousandPeople | -2 | abs.pop | High |
| Total fertility rate | 1.58 | ratio | -0.01 | abs.pop | High |
| GP bulk-billing rate | 78 | percent | — | aihw.health | Medium |
| Average annual out-of-pocket health cost | 1,420 | audPerYear | +4 | aihw.health | Medium |
| Median elective surgery waitDays. | 49 | count | — | aihw.health | Medium |
| Net out-of-pocket childcare costDollars per hour after subsidy. | 4.9 | aud | +3.5 | pc | Medium |
| Renewable share of electricity generation | 44 | percent | +3 | aer.energy | High |
| National greenhouse gas emissionsMegatonnes CO₂-equivalent per year. | 435 | count | -1.8 | aer.energy | Medium |
| Gini coefficient, disposable income | 0.323 | ratio | — | abs.hes | Medium |
| Relative poverty rate | 13.4 | percent | — | pc.wellbeing | Medium |
| Child poverty rate | 16.6 | percent | — | pc.wellbeing | Medium |
| Mortgagor households in housing stressHousing costs above 30% of gross income. Threshold measures are crude and sensitive to the cut-off. | 24 | percent | — | pc.wellbeing | Low |
| Renter households in housing stress | 32 | percent | — | pc.wellbeing | Low |
| Household financial stress indexConstructed 0–100 proxy. Higher means more stress. Not a measurement. | 46 | score | — | pc.wellbeing | Low |
| Modelled Wellbeing IndexA weighted composite of material and security proxies. Not a measure of happiness. | 59.2 | score | — | pc.wellbeing | Low |
| Prosperity IndexA weighted composite of nine material living-standard components. The level is a stated judgement about where Australia sits on each component; only the movement is a modelled result. | 58.4 | score | — | pc.wellbeing | Low |
| Household Economic Flexibility Score | 61 | score | — | pc.wellbeing | Low |
| Households at risk of homelessnessThousands of households. A risk proxy, not a count of people experiencing homelessness. | 122 | households | +2 | aihw.health | Low |