Households · PolicySandbox.ai

Household cohorts

64 synthetic cohorts covering 11.15 million households, on the grid age × income × tenure. Those three dimensions carry almost all of the incidence of the policies this product models. Family type, employment status, industry and region ride on each cohort as a composition rather than as extra grid dimensions — a 512-cell grid would be calibrated on air.

Demo simulation — not an official forecast. The baseline economy is dimensionally correct and in the right neighbourhood of published Australian aggregates, but it is not an official extract. Every relationship is calibrated rather than estimated by this project. Results are scenario estimates, not predictions.

Does it add up?

Weighted cohort totals against the national aggregates in the digital twin. A ratio far from 1.00 would mean the population is not representing the economy it claims to.

Aggregate	Cohort total	National	Ratio	Unit
Household disposable income	1,180.3	1,545.0	0.76	$bn per year
Household consumption	1,005.7	1,580.0	0.64	$bn per year
Housing credit	3,382.4	2,350.0	1.44	$bn outstanding
Superannuation assets	3,664.5	4,450.0	0.82	$bn
Households	11.2	11.2	1.00	million

Population structure

Households in each cell, in thousands.

Tenure	Lowest 20%	20–50%	50–80%	Top 20%	Total
Private renters	907k	1,120k	864k	416k	3,307k
Mortgage holders	338k	951k	1,382k	1,186k	3,857k
Outright owners	1,068k	1,092k	793k	517k	3,471k
Social housing	365k	130k	19k	2k	516k

Balance sheets

Every cohort's income, spending, debt and assets. These are the inputs the microsimulation applies a scenario to — mortgage repayments use annuity arithmetic on these balances, not a scaled average.

Cohort	Households	Gross income	Disposable	Mortgage	Rent /yr	Savings	Super	In stress
Upper-middle income, 35-54, with a mortgage	748k	$166,750	$131,551	$632,400	—	$52,200	$304,000	54%
High income, 35-54, with a mortgage	740k	$335,800	$228,824	$902,700	—	$184,500	$741,000	26%
Low income, 70+, owning outright	640k	$25,200	$64,093	—	—	$11,600	$65,100	0%
Lower-middle income, 70+, owning outright	581k	$51,000	$58,775	—	—	$42,000	$209,250	0%
Lower-middle income, 18-34, renting	497k	$78,200	$73,011	—	$27,040	$10,500	$37,800	57%
Lower-middle income, 35-54, with a mortgage	425k	$97,750	$90,136	$428,400	—	$18,900	$128,250	63%
Low income, 18-34, renting	392k	$38,640	$53,413	—	$21,840	$2,900	$11,760	79%
Lower-middle income, 55-69, owning outright	370k	$78,200	$76,291	—	—	$35,700	$249,750	0%
Upper-middle income, 18-34, renting	368k	$133,400	$105,560	—	$34,060	$29,000	$89,600	31%
Lower-middle income, 35-54, renting	341k	$97,750	$90,136	—	$27,040	$18,900	$128,250	34%
Upper-middle income, 55-69, owning outright	339k	$133,400	$106,720	—	—	$98,600	$592,000	0%
Low income, 55-69, owning outright	337k	$38,640	$62,013	—	—	$9,860	$77,700	0%
Upper-middle income, 35-54, renting	333k	$166,750	$131,551	—	$34,060	$52,200	$304,000	13%
Upper-middle income, 55-69, with a mortgage	314k	$133,400	$106,720	$359,600	—	$98,600	$592,000	48%
Upper-middle income, 70+, owning outright	283k	$87,000	$72,790	—	—	$116,000	$496,000	0%
High income, 55-69, with a mortgage	265k	$268,640	$183,365	$513,300	—	$348,500	$1,443,000	22%
Upper-middle income, 18-34, with a mortgage	259k	$133,400	$105,560	$713,000	—	$29,000	$89,600	74%
Lower-middle income, 55-69, with a mortgage	244k	$78,200	$76,291	$243,600	—	$35,700	$249,750	53%
High income, 55-69, owning outright	241k	$268,640	$183,365	—	—	$348,500	$1,443,000	0%
Low income, 35-54, renting	224k	$48,300	$63,809	—	$21,840	$5,220	$39,900	62%
High income, 35-54, renting	206k	$335,800	$228,824	—	$44,200	$184,500	$741,000	1%
Lower-middle income, 18-34, with a mortgage	195k	$78,200	$73,011	$483,000	—	$10,500	$37,800	79%
Lower-middle income, 55-69, renting	170k	$78,200	$76,291	—	$27,040	$35,700	$249,750	53%
Low income, 55-69, renting	163k	$38,640	$62,013	—	$21,840	$9,860	$77,700	65%
Upper-middle income, 35-54, owning outright	151k	$166,750	$131,551	—	—	$52,200	$304,000	0%
High income, 18-34, with a mortgage	146k	$268,640	$183,125	$1,017,750	—	$102,500	$218,400	45%
High income, 70+, owning outright	141k	$175,200	$120,246	—	—	$410,000	$1,209,000	0%
High income, 18-34, renting	130k	$268,640	$183,125	—	$44,200	$102,500	$218,400	5%
Low income, 70+, renting	129k	$25,200	$64,093	—	$21,840	$11,600	$65,100	62%
High income, 35-54, owning outright	126k	$335,800	$228,824	—	—	$184,500	$741,000	0%
Low income, 35-54, with a mortgage	123k	$48,300	$63,809	$290,700	—	$5,220	$39,900	69%
Upper-middle income, 55-69, renting	121k	$133,400	$106,720	—	$34,060	$98,600	$592,000	30%
Lower-middle income, 35-54, owning outright	120k	$97,750	$90,136	—	—	$18,900	$128,250	0%
Low income, 70+, in social housing	119k	$25,200	$64,093	—	$6,300	$11,600	$65,100	1%
Lower-middle income, 70+, renting	111k	$51,000	$58,775	—	$27,040	$42,000	$209,250	80%
Low income, 55-69, with a mortgage	103k	$38,640	$62,013	$165,300	—	$9,860	$77,700	47%
Low income, 55-69, in social housing	100k	$38,640	$62,013	—	$9,660	$9,860	$77,700	6%
Lower-middle income, 70+, with a mortgage	87k	$51,000	$58,775	$126,000	—	$42,000	$209,250	50%
Low income, 35-54, in social housing	77k	$48,300	$63,809	—	$12,075	$5,220	$39,900	13%
Low income, 35-54, owning outright	75k	$48,300	$63,809	—	—	$5,220	$39,900	0%
Low income, 18-34, in social housing	70k	$38,640	$53,413	—	$9,660	$2,900	$11,760	11%
Low income, 18-34, with a mortgage	68k	$38,640	$53,413	$327,750	—	$2,900	$11,760	82%
High income, 55-69, renting	64k	$268,640	$183,365	—	$44,200	$348,500	$1,443,000	5%
Upper-middle income, 70+, with a mortgage	60k	$87,000	$72,790	$186,000	—	$116,000	$496,000	55%
Low income, 70+, with a mortgage	44k	$25,200	$64,093	$85,500	—	$11,600	$65,100	20%
Upper-middle income, 70+, renting	42k	$87,000	$72,790	—	$34,060	$116,000	$496,000	72%
Lower-middle income, 35-54, in social housing	37k	$97,750	$90,136	—	$24,438	$18,900	$128,250	29%
High income, 70+, with a mortgage	35k	$175,200	$120,246	$265,500	—	$410,000	$1,209,000	30%
Lower-middle income, 55-69, in social housing	33k	$78,200	$76,291	—	$19,550	$35,700	$249,750	25%
Lower-middle income, 70+, in social housing	32k	$51,000	$58,775	—	$12,750	$42,000	$209,250	16%
Lower-middle income, 18-34, in social housing	28k	$78,200	$73,011	—	$19,550	$10,500	$37,800	28%
Lower-middle income, 18-34, owning outright	21k	$78,200	$73,011	—	—	$10,500	$37,800	0%
Upper-middle income, 18-34, owning outright	20k	$133,400	$105,560	—	—	$29,000	$89,600	0%
Low income, 18-34, owning outright	16k	$38,640	$53,413	—	—	$2,900	$11,760	0%
High income, 70+, renting	16k	$175,200	$120,246	—	$44,200	$410,000	$1,209,000	31%
High income, 18-34, owning outright	9k	$268,640	$183,125	—	—	$102,500	$218,400	0%
Upper-middle income, 35-54, in social housing	7k	$166,750	$131,551	—	$41,688	$52,200	$304,000	33%
Upper-middle income, 55-69, in social housing	5k	$133,400	$106,720	—	$33,350	$98,600	$592,000	32%
Upper-middle income, 18-34, in social housing	4k	$133,400	$105,560	—	$33,350	$29,000	$89,600	33%
Upper-middle income, 70+, in social housing	2k	$87,000	$72,790	—	$21,750	$116,000	$496,000	29%
High income, 35-54, in social housing	1k	$335,800	$228,824	—	$83,950	$184,500	$741,000	34%
High income, 55-69, in social housing	0k	$268,640	$183,365	—	$67,160	$348,500	$1,443,000	34%
High income, 18-34, in social housing	0k	$268,640	$183,125	—	$67,160	$102,500	$218,400	34%
High income, 70+, in social housing	0k	$175,200	$120,246	—	$43,800	$410,000	$1,209,000	33%

“In stress” is the share of each cohort whose housing costs exceed 30% of gross income, computed by integrating an assumed within-cohort lognormal distribution rather than by comparing the cohort average to the threshold. That is why a scenario can move the share without moving the average much, and vice versa.